Description
Fifa Pro Clubs is my favourite game mode in fifa! My team, MichuToday, continue to struggle to make it to division 1. We have remained in division 2 and 3 for the majority of our career! With only 8 games remaining in the season, we need 5 wins or rather, 15 points to promote to division 1! What are the chances?! Well, we figure that out here!
Code Editor
Here all the basic probabilities are calculated based on our game record. With a limited number or wins, I could already see that the chance of us achieving this was not likely to be high! We've played 1301 of which we can determine that the chance of us winning a game is 39.51%, the chance of us drawing is 19.98% and the chance of losing is 40.51%.
I have calculated the probability of us winning based on the points you get for a game. For a win, you earn 3 points for a draw you earn 1 and for a loss you earn 0 points. I have divided the number of draws by 3 to count 3 draws as a win to allow for our draws to count for something! THis probability raises our win probability from 39.51% to 46.17%.
I have calculated the probability of us winning based on the points you get for a game. For a win, you earn 3 points for a draw you earn 1 and for a loss you earn 0 points. I have divided the number of draws by 3 to count 3 draws as a win to allow for our draws to count for something! THis probability raises our win probability from 39.51% to 46.17%.
Had to make a couple of functions in order to make it easier to calculate the probability of and event happening k times out of N, where the probability of a single occurrence is p. Where;
k - The number or target events - in this case 5 wins
N - The number of available events - in this case 8 games
p - The probabilirt of the target event occuring
k - The number or target events - in this case 5 wins
N - The number of available events - in this case 8 games
p - The probabilirt of the target event occuring
As mentioned earlier, there is a 46.17% chance of us winning a game.
There is only an 18.33% chance that we get 5 wins out of the 8 only, however, there is a 28.32% chance that we can win 5, 6, 7 or 8 games out of 8 which would get us promotion! as we only require an additional 15 points!
The average number of wins we are likely to achieve is 3.6936.
There is only an 18.33% chance that we get 5 wins out of the 8 only, however, there is a 28.32% chance that we can win 5, 6, 7 or 8 games out of 8 which would get us promotion! as we only require an additional 15 points!
The average number of wins we are likely to achieve is 3.6936.
This shows the probability mass Function. The red line indicates the mean value of 3.6936 wins. This is the expected number of wins that we will get with our current distribution of wins, draws and losses.
This shows the cumaltive density function. The greatest increase is at the mean at 3 to 4. THis indicates that the majority of the variance occurs between 1 and 5.
Probability Analysis (Points View)
The probability of the team gaining a point is 46.17% which reflects our findings in the previews view of the analysis.
This shows probability mass function for the points. This shows that the mean number of points likely to be won is 11.08 which reflects the 3.6936 wins that we found in the previous analysis.
This shows the cumulative density function. The majority of the variance is between 7 and 15, meaning that this region is where the majority of the probabilities lie as the curve plateaus around 15/16.
Conclusion
To conclude, it doesn't look great! the odds are stacked against us, but not too drastically... we'll just have to wait and see! With the probability of us winning 5 or more games at 28.32%, that may not be a great motivator to the rest of the team but there is still a chance!]
Looking at the point cumulative density function, it's quite a steep slope to climb for promotion! With the mean points expected to earn in these remaining 24 games at 11.08. We will have to earn an additional 4 points, meaning we should be pushing for 2 wins when it looks like we're likely to draw twice to get the points required.
The points view is limited in that it assumes that each point is achieved as an individual event when we know that that isn't the case. Points are earned in 3's and 1's. The previous analysis takes this into account.
More insight into our games would be useful so that we are able to identify our weaknesses as to know where we can further develop and our strengths so we know what strategies to play when approaching games.
Looking at the point cumulative density function, it's quite a steep slope to climb for promotion! With the mean points expected to earn in these remaining 24 games at 11.08. We will have to earn an additional 4 points, meaning we should be pushing for 2 wins when it looks like we're likely to draw twice to get the points required.
The points view is limited in that it assumes that each point is achieved as an individual event when we know that that isn't the case. Points are earned in 3's and 1's. The previous analysis takes this into account.
More insight into our games would be useful so that we are able to identify our weaknesses as to know where we can further develop and our strengths so we know what strategies to play when approaching games.
